Category Archives: Career

Today’s Economy

Career

I have been selling hotels for 25 years and have loved my career from the very first sale. With that, I am often asked (about every other day) by clients where I see this market cycle going and how long it will last.

I have been through enough market cycles to know that there is always a downturn at some point and the markets always come back. I remember when 911 happened, we had about 15 hotels under contract and within one week we had 0 under contract. After 911, I was concerned that it may be a decade before there was liquidity back in the market. Thankfully that downturn only lasted about 18 months before beginning to stabilize.

When I talk about economic cycles, I am talking about everything from jobs, housing, gas, commercial real estate, debt, yields, stock market and the public’s perception of hope or fear. The thing is, no one knows how long or how deep each cycle will be. I will give you a little economic history. If you took the last 11 recessions over 67 years since 1948, when a market downturn begins, it has taken on average 10 months to get to the bottom of the downturn. The average market recovery has been 57 months. This means, it has taken on average 5 times longer for a market to stabilized than is does for a market to fall.

The flow of information via the internet has made a dramatic shift in the timing of market cycles. The timing of this past cycle was inverted from anything in history. This last cycle started in October 2007 and bottomed out around January of 2010. So it took almost 3 times as long to reach the bottom that the previous 11 recessions. It would have been longer if the Federal Reserve hadn’t stepped in to back stop the banks, airlines and car companies. Had they not stepped in, we would today be in a great depression and most people would have lost everything they own.

So the question is where are we at in this cycle? My answer is that we are in the 8th inning of a 9 inning ballgame. I told a client yesterday that you need to be a seller today of anything you want to sell from a house, hotel, land to a ski boat. I told this same client that I don’t believe I will ever see the economy again like it is today where you can go get an 80% commercial non-recourse loan for under 4% interest rate.

I think you listen to what people say and then you watch what people do. I would rather watch than listen. The answer is to prepare (reduce personal debt and save money) as if the economy will falter and pray that this cycle will continue for years.

Laying it in God’s hands

Career, Family, Life

This is a tough thing to do. For me it is but maybe not for you. We want to control the outcome and be in charge and make all the decisions.

At some point with our personal lives and our professional lives we need to learn how to lay it in God’s hands. That doesn’t mean you stop doing what you should be doing. It just means that once you have done all you can do, that’s really all you can do. It’s really not complicated. Difficult, but not complicated.

It is like the guy that prays for a job, lays it in God’s hands and then stops trying to find a job. That’s not how it works. There is a term called “putting feet to your prayer.” This means that just because you prayed over something and laid it in God’s hands that you can quit. It is more than that. It means that you try harder and believe harder that God will let his favor go before you and that his anointing will be on you.

I have often said that besides our salvation, all you need is his favor to get you there and then his anointing once you do.

It is like driving through the mountains around all the curves. You can’t see what is around the curve but you have the peace to know that you are in the right vehicle and on the right road. What is around the curve is God’s responsibility. Driving the car on the right road is your responsibility.

Jack Nicklaus is and was the greatest professional golfer of all time. He was being interviewed and he said that he never let himself believe how good he was. He always believed he was not doing the best he could and that he could do better. He said that once people start to believe that they have arrived, they quit trying to improve. He never let himself believe all the reporters and news articles that were written about him. And oh by the way, he held his life together and keep his principles and is and was a great family man and he didn’t let ego have a place in his life. That is a pretty good example.

Whatever you are struggling with, get in a quiet place and lay it in God’s hands and then go out and put feet to your prayer. KT

Oh what a tangled web we weave

Career, Life

Sir Walter Scott who passed away in 1832 quoted “Oh what a tangled web we weave, when we first practice to deceive.”

In The commercial real estate business there is a type loan called a CMBS loan. It is a non-recourse, long term, fixed rate, fully assumable financing vehicle. That’s it. The perfect loan. That all that’s need to be said. Right?

Well maybe not. My experience has taught me that when something sound perfect, I am not asking the right questions. There is always another side. In the case of these type loans it is almost like predatory lending. When the lender is telling you all the reasons why this loan is perfect, they forget to tell you that the loan really is not assumable on its current terms and that the borrower’s equity will be locked up for 10 year with no way to get it and lastly that the bank you closed your loan with will be replaced by a company that could care less about you. That is the other side.

Now on a personal level, we all know that when you start to deceive, you have to keep deceiving in order to not get caught deceiving. Ha. One lie turns into five and then the five turns into 10.

This week I had a client that was upset because I didn’t get his hotel sold. He asked me why and I told him it was my fault. I told him I just advised him wrong on the value and all the blame lies with me. Much of the steam of his anger went away by soft spoken honesty. Last year I was pitching on a large hotel in Florida and I asked the seller who we were competing with. He told me the other broker’s name and I told him he needed to hire that other broker because he was better than I was on hotels like his. The seller was speechless. I knew we were not the perfect broker for his big deal because our specialty is different. I would like to believe that the seller in that example will recommend us in the future.

One time when I was in the first grade I stole a quarter from my parents and bought 5 candy bars (I am old because candy bars were a nickel then) and hid them. It felt so good to buy those candy bars but it worried me so much that it made me sick. I couldn’t even eat the candy bars and I finally had to tell my mom what I had done. She was sweet and used the situation to teach me a life lesson.

When you set out to deceive, it ends up costing you peace and joy and disrupts the flow of your life. There are people that all they know is deceit. They lie unconsciously and continually. To them it is just a way of life. It impedes their rest and their sleep because it wakes them up just thinking about it.

Everyone reading this blog post knows that deceit is harmful, mostly to ourselves. I would advocate not to practice deceit, rather just tell the truth. Every time you lie it is like adding a pound to your backpack. After a while it gets heavy to carry it around every day. It is very freeing to not add more weight to the backpack we carry but instead take some weight out. It is actually energizing to be truthful and it will make you a better person. KT

Happy days

Career, Family, Life

Are you too burdened down with life to be happy?

I remember the show “Happy Days” staring Opie (Ron Howard) in his teen years. The show centered on a small town where everyone knew each other and everyone’s mortgage was always paid on time, the car never broke down, they lived in a beautiful house, dad had a job, mom and dad were still married and in the show there seemed to be this euphoric safe feeling that centered around joy and hope. There was no major family drama, no one died, no one got their heart broken and even the hamburgers and ice cream shakes at Arnold’s were always good.

It would be great if real life was like that show but it is not. We deal with issues such as financial, emotional, job, health and family. To some there are never happy days. To others they always find something to worry about that prevents the day from being happy. They carry the baggage and the load from day to day, week to week and relationship to relationship. To some that are dealing with real health issues, it is very understandable, but to others that have it all and still can’t find happiness, it is to these that I write this blog.

I have had friends that died early and others that have heart issues, health issues like Alzheimer’s and Parkinson’s, financial issues and the list can go on. I believe we all really need to step back and realize what the gift of time really means. It means that you have today and you have right now. Elaine and I just got back from Alaska on a land excursion and a 7 day cruise and I read last week about those 9 people on a cruise that died on a float plane excursion. We took a small airplane on our trip as well. I think of the families and friends that were left behind after those 9 people died. Obviously they expected to take off in that plane and come back safe with stories, pictures and memories to tell. They didn’t get any of those 3 things.

We were at church Sunday and there is this gentlemen that welcomes everyone and he is probably in his late 30’s and it in a wheelchair. He is always a joy to talk to and always seems upbeat and happy to be there. Many of us that go to church, go to church burdened with life to the point that we cannot find happiness. We go in with long faces and come out with long faces.

The point is this; God help us to find joy and happiness while we still have a choice. Take an inventory of your life and ask yourself “should I be happy?” or is there a real reason I should not. Many if not most of us, should be happy. By choice, we choose not to see the hope for the future that should be all of ours.

I don’t know what your future holds any more than I know what mine holds. I do know who holds our future and I do know that he tells us to live life abundantly. One could interpret this writing to say “live life abundantly while you can.” KT

What’s in a name?

Career

A name in business is another term for reputation. Does the name have a good reputation or a bad reputation? In business, the name is everything. If the name is known for honesty and doing what you say you will do, then the reputation is a powerful thing.

I get calls from time to time from clients that I sold hotels for 20 years ago to talk to me about selling a hotel. I would like to think they called me because they were treated with honesty and I did what I said I was going to do. I know other hotel brokers and other business leaders who have the mentality of doing whatever it takes to make a sale. These guys don’t usually last long. It is because their reputation precedes them and they have lost the trust of their clients. I have never liked slick talkers. Anyone who knows me knows that I am anything but a slick talker. Ha. In fact I stutter and there is nothing slick or impressive about a salesman who stutters.

I think in life you have to do the best with what you have. You don’t have to wear the best suit or the best dress, drive the best car, and have the best look or anything of the sort. People can read your eyes and know who you are. Some of the best business people I have ever known where not flashy and in fact were the opposite. I knew one guy that drove the same Cadillac (1980) until he passed away a few years back. It was an old yellow car that was worn out but exemplified who he was. It is said that Sam Walton still drove his old truck every day well after he was a billionaire.

In business, your name and your reputation is the most valuable thing you have. I have been approached many times over the years to take kickbacks, side money or fancy vacations in payments for doing something that is either illegal or immoral or both. I have always turned it down and I always will. Wouldn’t it be great if our representatives in Washington would do the same thing? They let themselves meet with lobbyist and before you know it, the lobbyists have their hooks into them.

I believe it is never too late to start being who you are supposed to be. Your name and reputation will last past your lifetime and your children and grandchildren will remember you with pride or embarrassment. A name in business will outlive its founder and future employees will either have a high regard for the name or not. KT