All posts by Keith Thompson

When the tide goes down, you can see who is wearing clothes

Career, Life

Yes Siree Bob, if you were at the beach watching a bunch of people swimming, when the tide drops, you can see who has pants on. That is what is going on in the stock market.

In the greater stock market and in hotel stocks particularly, the tide just dropped, and half the people are naked. All the big talkers that three weeks ago were wearing five thousand suits and big smile, today are just wearing the smile. Everything else is exposed. I mean really exposed.

What has happened to hotel stocks in the last three weeks is nothing short of breathtaking. I have never seen anything like it or never thought I would. One day (three weeks ago) the world was right, people were doing well, construction was at an all-time high, houses were selling in several days, new buildings were under construction, banks were lending, and the stock market was roaring. That was 21 days ago. Today, the world has changed and for the most part, fear has paralyzed the US economy.

I told my wife last night that this whole situation drives home the point that regardless of what we may believe, we are not really in control. It also drives home the fact that if you are going to go swimming in the investment ocean, may sure you are wearing a swimsuit. KT

Bulls, Bears and the Wolf

Career

Over the past several decades we have all become familiar with terms, bull market or bear market as it relates to the stock market in general. If the stock market is rising, it is referred to as a bull market and if the stock market is in decline, it is referred to as a bear market. Bulls charge and bears hibernate or hide.

Ever heard of the term wolf market?  A wolf market is defined as any two consecutive, 10%+ downward corrections with no increase in price from the trough of the first correction to the trough of the second correction. That is what we have today. No one seriously saw the past three weeks coming.

Wolf markets are characterized by volatile/sideways stock prices. My simplistic viewpoint on the differences is that you can hear bulls and bears running toward you, but a wolf sneaks up quietly and all you hear is its growl before it attacks.

In my opinion, within the past 25 years we have only had one other true wolf market and that was after 911. It was tragic and many people lost their lives and its memory will forever live with each of us. Economically, because it happened so sudden, quick and deep, markets were able to come back at almost the same inverted curve as it went down. This is our hope for this Wolf market.

Throughout history, there is one consistent component that will never change. God is in control. KT

Dogs and the stock market

Career, Life

Did you know there is a reason for how a dog got its name? It is God spelled backward.

These past 14 days have been breathtaking for the hotel industry. Companies that I have known for years have lost 60-75% of their equity value. The transaction market will undoubtably be in turmoil for the coming months. Yesterday (Thursday March 12) was a day of value decline that I have never seen in 30 years.

So, I went home and didn’t want to see any news or check my phone. I just wanted to eat dinner with my wife and watch some TV and let my mind cool down. We have two dogs, a fat Sheltie and a little 5-month-old Yorkie. They didn’t care what happened to the stock market yesterday. Ha. Their love and unconditional acceptance were the same as the day before and the day before that. All they wanted was to be loved. That’s all they cared about. So, I picked them both up and loved on them. The little one (yorkie) licked my face like she was telling me, its ok.

A dog is an amazing gift because their love is truly unconditional. Whatever happened that day just doesn’t matter to them. I believe (at least imagine) God created everything and stepped back and said, now, I am going to create the only animal that desires human contact and human love. The dog was created with the most forgiving heart and the greatest ability to love of all the animals.

So, our fat Sheltie and little 3lb Yorkie will be waiting for me when I get home today and it doesn’t matter what the stock market does. KT

Be bold

Life

When my girls were still at home and in school, as with all children there were sometimes challenges. Whether it was a team they were trying out for, a class trip they were taking or this friend or that friend etc. I would always tell them to, Be Bold. Act like you belong there and deserve to be there. Not always, but many times how you are treated in life is about the attitude you go in with. I would tell them to be kind, be confident and be bold.

I was traveling a couple weeks ago to make a speech at a hotel conference and one of my daughters told me, be bold. Ha. The parent has become the child!

I have told this story before, but I was with a good friend of mine in Kentucky some years ago and he needed to fill a prescription at the local CVS. I told him we could drop it off and come back for it later. He said, oh no, I am going to get it filled right now and I said,,,,, ok, roger that. He said it is all about how you approach the situation. If you went in timid, they will make you wait but if you walk in confident, they will fill it on the spot. I know this may not be how is done now but this was back some years ago. I decided I would just watch what happens when he goes in there. Well, he walks in and tells the person he needs it filled and he is in a hurry. 10 minutes later he walks out with the prescription.

The point is that in life many times you need to muster your will, take a deep breath and while always having manners and kindness, be bold in everything you do. KT

Fast decisions

Career, Life

The company was floundering, and the board decided to replace the CEO with a young aggressive guy to turn the company around. The next morning, the new CEO scheduled a meeting in the board room with all the company leadership. He walked into the packed board room ready to take charge, make some changes and show everyone just how magnificent a leader he was. When he walked in, he saw one of the guys leaning against the wall. In front of everyone, he walked up to the guy and ask him how money he makes every week. Surprised, the guy says about $400 dollars a week. The CEO turns around walks out and comes back a few minutes later with a check for $1,600 dollars which represented a month severance pay. He handed the guy the check and told him he was fired and to get out. The guy took the $1,600 check and quietly left. The new CEO, feeling that he had really made a real leadership statement and showed them who the new boss was, asked one of the other people what job role the fired guy did. The other person told him; he was the pizza delivery guy. Ha

The point is even though you feel like it (like twitter and all the singers and Hollywood stars), it is best sometimes to take breath, think about it before you make rash decisions. KT